From mega-regions to mega commutes: US commuting working paper

My previous post provided some images from a recent piece of work I did on mapping tract-to-tract commuting patterns in the contiguous United States. This post provides a bit more background and extracts from a working paper, plus some of the original map outputs from the project - which are different in style (kind of a night time view). The focus is also more on mega commutes and mega-regions (think Gottmann's 'megalopolis'). I also provide a bit more detail on the method and data.

A constellation of cities in the Midwest

Being a member of the Regional Studies Association for a good few years now, I've followed various debates about regions, city-regions and mega-regions - including the very interesting work on mega-regions by the America2050 project of the Regional Plan Association. I also have a longstanding interest in commuting flows (and mapping them) so I set myself the challenge of mapping micro-level commuting flows in the contiguous United States in the hope of identifying what I expected would be some interesting mega-region commutes. I also hoped, in the context of this data, that I would discover some of the mega commutes identified by Rapino and Fields of the US Census Bureau. On both counts I wasn't disappointed. The first map below shows the entirety of the lower 48 states and the commuting patterns come out quite clearly.

Journeys to work in the contiguous United States

Obviously, some areas are more interesting than others, so I zoomed in on various areas, including California and the Northeastern United States. The map below shows travel to work patterns in California, and you can clearly see the wider Los Angeles metro area as one large commuter region, the Bay Area as another (but more polycentric), and also the settlement and journey to work patterns in the Central Valley, from Redding in the north down to Bakersfield in the South. This shows the urban settlement patterns in the state of California, but also the spatial configuration of the commuting connections between places.

If you take a closer look at the working paper behind these maps you'll find out more about the data. What I found most interesting were the locations where 'mega commuting' was prevalent, so I looked at the top 20 Census tracts in the Northeastern US with the highest number of people commuting there - i.e. over 50 miles each way. As you can see from the table below, this is dominated by New York City, but Washington DC also features. The total volume may not seem much, but remember that these are quite small Census tracts, with only a few thousand people.

Mega commuting in the Northeastern United States

I then did something slightly different - I wanted to filter the data in a more scientific manner. Since the data provided by US Census Bureau includes a margin of error (MOE) value for each individual tract-to-tract flow, I calculated the coefficient of variation for each individual flow line (there were just over 4 million). These were based on a 90% confidence level, so the formula was simply:

((MOE/1.645)/Commuting Estimate) x 100

I used a rather generous cut-off and then displayed only those flows which had a coefficient of variation of less than 40. The results are shown in the map below. We can see the expected pattern of commuting but - hold on a minute - what are those really long distance lines? Surely people don't 'commute' vast distances like this. Well, it turns out that this might actually be true because many of these lines begin and end in military locations or other places associated with regular, long distance moves for work and since the American Community Survey asks respondents how they usually got to work ‘last week’, it's entirely plausible that a number of people will work away from home and that this will lead to the kinds of patterns we see below. Or, to put it another way, don't think of these long lines as journeys people travel every day! 

If you want to read more about it, you can click below to see the working paper, which also includes links to high resolution versions of the images shown here.

American Commute: working paper

How many people live in Tokyo?

Back in August 2014 when I was preparing some material for teaching students how to query data in a GIS, I devised a very simple example where they had to select all the countries in the world with a lower population than the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (or Greater Tokyo Area, as it's sometimes called). I did this just as an example but since I found the results quite interesting, I quickly turned it into a map and posted it on Twitter, complete with 'Toyko' typo in the subheading. It was really just a quick example of how to query data in a GIS but it also highlighted the massive population of the Tokyo metropolitan area. You can find the full size, original image here. I was prompted to write this blog because the map was reposted on the Canadian Twitter feed @AsapSCIENCE a few days ago and since then my inbox has been a bit busy.

Now, back to the original question of how many people live in 'Tokyo'. Well, when I say 'Tokyo' in the map, I'm referring to the wider metropolitan area, which in 2014 the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects said has a total population of 37,833,000, far beyond the next largest urban agglomeration, Delhi, at 24,953,000. By way of comparison, using the urban agglomeration population (rather than a city's administrative boundaries), Toronto had 5.9 million, London had 10.2 million and Beijing had 19.5 million. Clearly, these definitions include other urban places that are not Tokyo (e.g. Yokohama) but they are recognized as being part of a fairly coherent metropolitan area. 

So, in the map, I'm using a figure of 'approx 36 million' as I say but in reality the UN figure is a bit higher. If we want to narrow the definition down to just the inner urban area then obviously the figure reduces significantly. I'm not usually one to cite Wikipedia, but in this case it's a good place to go to learn about the various definitions of the Greater Tokyo Area/Kantō region. If you don't want to click, here's a summary of some Tokyo populations...

• Former city area (23 'special wards') - 8.95 million people
• Tokyo Metropolis - 13.05 million
• Tokyo Metropolitan Employment Area - 31.70 million
• National Capital Region - 43.47 million

If we take the metropolitan definition used by the United Nations, then Tokyo does indeed have more people than Canada, at 35.5 million (2014 Statistics Canada estimate) and far more than Australia at 23.7 million (see their population clock). The Tokyo metropolitan population is roughly the same as the whole of California, which currently stands at about 38 million.

Link to chart

This was all just a little bit of map trivia and whilst it seems to have annoyed some people who live in a red country, the point was just to demonstrate the simple analytical power of GIS in addition to the size of Tokyo (to make it more interesting). The data I used are from Natural Earth if you want to have a look yourself and the software I used is a free GIS called QGIS, which is really good. Some other random facts about what happened to my original tweet...

• It was tweeted by Guardian Cities and then retweeted 309 times and favourited 107 times.
• It was tweeted by AsapSCIENCE on 22 January 2015 and since then retweeted 96 times and favourited 110 times.
• Akihabara News wrote an entire article about the map, and even spelled my name correctly - that hardly ever happens.
• Tokyo Desu also did a piece on it - and added another map too.
• What does it all look like on the ground? This photo (below) from ATBREAK gives you some idea.

Tokyo metropolitan area